KNP Complex Fire Update: 9/14/2021 8:30 p.m.

Good evening. First let me say that I feel odd giving these updates. I think the park service should be doing a lot better job reaching out to its communities. With that said, I feel obligated to keep you informed with accurate information. For those of you that know me, you understand my ties to the community and what my occupation is. Like you, I’m left without updates, so I have to talk with those on the fire or do my own analysis. So hopefully my armchair synopsis helps.

It appears we’ve had minimal growth throughout the day, which is good. Unfortunately, this slow growth was due to an inversion layer that had the smoked capped down. Although this hampered the fires spread, it also hampered the use of aircraft. But at least this bought us a little time…

Topography and a somewhat lush, healthy forest continues to work in our favor as the fire creeps east, up conifer ridge and towards paradise peak. After it crests these landmarks, it will have to back downhill towards our communities. This will continue to play in our favor, at least I’m hopeful it will. The eastern flank of the fire is just under 4 miles away.

The same story for the most part on the southwestern flank of the fire: albeit moderate growth due to the immersion layer, but thankfully not explosive growth as it entered into flashier fuel beds. The fire has crested paradise ridge. Because of the massive fire growth we saw last night due to down canyon winds, I would expect the fire to make a run down the drainages towards the East fork tonight. This would essentially follow the path of Milk Ranch RD and the creeks that run adjacent to it. As of latest inferred satellite flyover, the fires edge is about 3.4 miles from the East fork below lookout point.

As I’ve said in my previous post, I believe our biggest threat is the fire becoming established in the fuel bed below lookout point.

I only caught a little of the meeting tonight on Facebook live. I’m relieved that both NPS and BLM will be allowing full suppression efforts (including dozer lines) on this fire. Unfortunately, the terrain is rough and resources are limited. I’m impressed with the leadership of Cal Fire Division Chief Andy Turner. I have known Chief Turner for some time and he is very competent and committed to protect our community. The fire management team has been upgraded from a type 2 to a type 1, which will allow for greater support and resources.

So let’s just hope for little to now wind tonight! I believe tomorrow morning will be a turning point.

--Matt G.